Whats the Next Dominant User Device?

Figures produced by Statista show global sales of Smart Phones since 2007 following the pattern of a classical S curve and plateauing last year (2017) at around 1.5 Billion units per year. 

If one considers that the average person will replace his or her device every 3 years or so (if they ignore their service provider trying to lock them into a replace every 2 years cycle), then it suggests that the market is saturated.

Indeed, Canalys's figures suggest that smart phone shipments in China dropped last year, especially at the upper end of the market. This reinforces the recent news that Apple is not shipping as many of its new iPhone X models as anticipated.

So where is the attention of consumers going and does this signify a new battleground for consumer devices and internet access?

Tablets are certainly not taking over. Last year's figures indicated a 20% global drop on sales by the top 5 vendors to around 200M units p.a. continuing a slip which appears to go back to 2014. In fact, Statista's figures for combined PC, Laptop and Tablet sales show significnat declines and are not forecast to increase either, suggesting combined sales of around 400 million p.a. which is still dwarfed by Smart Phones.

Figures for wearable technologies, smart watches, smart glasses, rings etc. are growing but are only at around 100 Million units p.a.

Smart speakers, such as Alexa and Google Assistant, do not appear to be the answer either. Although fast growing and central to the home automation market, Canalys puts 2018 global sales projections at only around 56M and to be honest smart digital assistants are already available on smart phone platforms.

Firesticks can be discounted too. They are really only focused on smart TVs and too niche to shoulder the whole burden.

Augmented reality glasses or mixed reality smart glasses are still kick starting after Googles original concept fired the imagination but failed in public. Google is back again with a refined, less clunky version, but so are a slew of other contenders: Microsoft with its Hololens (holographic, gesture driven windows 10), Vuzix with the Blade and Alexa integration, Lightwear and Meta 2 just to name a few. However global sales are yet to reach the 1 million units p.a. mark.

So where is the market going and who is going to capitalise on it? this is an interesting question as it implies the next dominant driver of digital technology exploitation as well as which companies will profit.

Although IoT will end up connecting billions more devices than consumer devices, the influence is likely to be lesser as there is less money to be made there. 1nce for example, is targeting a price point of 10 Euros per device for 10 years connectivity support. As the economics don't support higher prices. Sparce data is the name of the game, not high end functions and complex data sets.

Human Computer integration is coming, but not yet here. Again this is interesting as it appears to be catching up rapidly with wearables, so there may be some imminent convergence over the next 4 years or so.

So is fragmentation into niche applications slowing growth, or is this a pause before the next integrating concept comes along and what will it look like?

The Fashion of Digital

This week, The Wearable Technology Show hits London's Excel. This is the show where fashion meets technology. It also confirms that wearable technology is moving up the curve from exotic toys towards main stream adoption. Over 60 wearable technology companies have taken stands along with around 40 digital health companies  Accompanying conference streams cover wearables, health, smart cities and general IoT. To a large extent this points towards a future where individual people (and their pets) become completely meshed with the Internet and Digital becomes a way of life.

As this show focuses on the state of the art, it is about currently available and soon to be available technologies, rather than a distant future where people's brains may be augmented and assisted by implanted biological computers and AI based control technology harnesses slave robots to enable us to do so much more. It's more about cool stuff you can buy now. Though I am still waiting for clothes which you just program with the latest downloadable fashion designs, there is a lot of foundational stuff in place already.

Being a man and recognising the inner eight year old trapped within my body, the coolest play thing at the show was not really digital. It was the vests which you can paint with lasers ( see: https://www.illuminatedapparel.co.uk/ ) and make glow for 10 minutes or so, until the luminescence has worn off. I can imagine lots of fun at parties with them.

However as an excited adult consumer, the product which really took my mind was Rythm's Dreem Headband (see: https://dreem.com). This is still in beta test, but promises to revolutionise the way you sleep and ensure that you get the deepest, most fulfilling sleep possible. For the potential to massively improve most people's lives, this is truly amazing. Although Philip K Dick would probably have had a field day writing a book about unexpected consequences and mishaps associated with over use or abuse of such technology.

For sheer practicality, I was very taken by RealWear's HMT-1 headset. This is a working man's version of what Google glasses should be. By working man, I mean any engineer or technician who has to go into the field or into hazardous environments and needs a hands free method of referring to technical drawings or recording video images. The head set fits neatly under protective head gear. It is totally voice controlled (in multiple languages) and the display, goes under one eye and is adjustable so that you look down onto it, so it does not block your vision. The set I tried, filtered out the background noise of the exhibition hall. (anyone who has been to the Excel exhibition centre will know how noisy it becomes). It also required absolutely no voice training, which is unusual for me. I had never come across a voice technology which understands me first time until today. The display was clear, unobtrusive and responsive.

The exhibition also included lots of other wearable technologies including smart rings, watches, sports bras and shoe insoles which underpin health and ports monitoring and analysis technologies. Additionally there were several home automation / IoT products and a device for remotely monitoring and interacting with your pet dogs and cats. The device targeted at dogs will even dispense treats to your dog, whilst you are calling in and talking to it from the office (or wherever you happen to be).

If you are looking for insight however, three things come to mind:

• Jonny Voom, talking about Smart Cities and IoT, said that its not about the physical things or the software. It's actually about the people. People make a city. They define its success and cause its problems (traffic jams, pollution etc.) The trick is to integrate everything around people to drive better outcomes.
• A lot of the adoption of wearable technology is going to be driven by the health and insurance industries. So there is a danger that this could become the instrument of over intrusion.
• The reason that Google expect smart watches to become the future and replace what's in your pocket today (money, ID cards, payment cards, loyalty schemes, keys, smart phones etc.) isn't because they have a great interface, but because being small and strapped to you, they provide very rapid access to many daily functions without having to fiddle around. It's easier to read your time and heart beat frequency from a watch whilst running, than from almost any other device. You don't have to fiddle in your wallet or pocket to find an oyster card or ticket when going through a train station's ticket barriers (just wave your watch in the right direction). You are less likely to drop it or be pick pocketed than with old world cardboard tickets, cash or mobile phones.

 So we are not quite in Sci-Fi territory yet with wearable technology, but it is about to become grown up.